Australian farmland values hit a record median of $10,516 per hectare in 2025, according to Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ Australian Farmland Values report — the 12th straight year of national growth. But the pace is slowing fast: that 2.8% annual increase was the smallest of the entire streak, and transaction volumes sat 15.6% below the ten-year average. On the residential side, the picture is just as fractured — Sydney and Melbourne are in correction territory, while Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane are still setting records. Here’s what you actually need to know.
This article is general information only and does not constitute professional advice. For your specific situation, consult a qualified professional.
The national farmland figure masks enormous variation. Tasmania’s median of $18,424 per hectare is more than five times the Northern Territory’s $3,662. South Australia’s median jumped 20.4% — but the report itself warns that was “artificially lifted” by a shift in the sales mix toward high-value coastal properties, while four of SA’s seven regions actually declined. ABARES’ separate Farmland Price Indicator, which tracks broadacre transactions of 50 hectares or more, shows national broadacre prices grew at an average 9.8% a year over the ten years to 2025, with cropping land (14.2%) and southern beef country (14.1%) the fastest sectors. On the residential side, Domain’s FY27 forecast has Sydney houses falling as much as 7% and Melbourne up to 8%, while Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are tipped to keep climbing. The common thread? A headline number tells you very little about whether a specific block is worth its price.
What’s at Stake When You Misread Land Values
Overpaying by even 10% on a $1 million block is $100,000 you may never recover. Underestimating holding costs — council rates, insurance, land tax, maintenance — can turn a promising investment into a cash drain. And buying in a location where values are falling while you thought they were rising is the kind of mistake that takes years to unwind.
The research makes clear that the cost of getting it wrong is higher than ever. With borrowing capacity cut by roughly $90,000 following this year’s rate rises, buyers have less margin for error. And with KPMG forecasting national house prices to fall 1.1% in 2026 before a gradual recovery in 2027, the timing of your purchase matters as much as the price you pay.
For farmland buyers, the stakes are different but just as real. If you’re buying at the top of a 12-year run, you need to be confident the underlying value supports the price — not just that the median went up last year.
Where Buyers and Sellers Get Land Values Wrong
Treating the Median as Your Property’s Value
The most common error. A median is a single data point from a set of sales that may include vastly different properties — some with improvements, some without, some with water entitlements, some on marginal land. The Bendigo Bank report explicitly states its figures are “not intended for use as a farm valuation tool.” Yet people routinely use them that way.
Ignoring the Sales Mix
South Australia’s 20.4% jump in 2025 looks like a boom. But the report explains it was largely compositional: three consecutive drought years shifted sales toward high-value lifestyle and coastal country around Adelaide and the Fleurieu Peninsula. Four of SA’s seven regions actually declined. If you’d bought in a declining region based on the state median, you’d have overpaid.
Forgetting Holding Costs
Land doesn’t generate income while you wait for it to appreciate. Council rates, insurance, land tax (which varies significantly by state), and maintenance all add up. In Victoria, land tax changes from 1 January 2024 reduced the tax-free threshold for investors from $300,000 to $50,000, catching many small investors with annual bills they hadn’t budgeted for.
Not Stress-Testing Your Numbers
APRA’s APS 220 standard requires lenders to apply a serviceability buffer of at least three percentage points when assessing home loan applications. That’s the lender’s test, not yours. Run your own numbers at a higher rate — the difference between a 6% and 8% rate on a $600,000 loan is roughly $800 a month in repayments.
How to Assess Whether a Block Is Worth the Price
Build a Comparable Sales Set
Find several recent sales that genuinely resemble the subject property. For each, record the address, agreed sale price, sale date, dwelling type, bedrooms, bathrooms, land area, condition, and any relevant title restrictions. NSW Government’s sales-information guide links to searches by suburb, street, property, and date. Other jurisdictions have their own sources. Use the closest matches to establish a range — don’t average unrelated properties or assign unsupported dollar adjustments to every extra bedroom.
Check the Competition
Treat asking prices as seller expectations until a transaction provides stronger evidence. Monitor how long similar properties have been advertised. If comparable homes are taking longer to sell or prices are being reduced, that tells you something about market direction. Auction clearance rates below 50% — which has been the case in Sydney and Melbourne since late May 2026 — signal a buyer’s market.
Calculate the Full Cost of Ownership
For a purchase, calculate the cash required to complete: transfer duty, legal or conveyancing fees, inspections, registration costs, and loan costs. Then add ongoing expenses: council rates, insurance, strata levies (if applicable), and maintenance. For investors, compare realistic rental income with loan payments, management fees, and a buffer for vacancy and unexpected repairs. A gross rental yield alone doesn’t tell you the cash left after expenses.
Know When to Get a Formal Valuation
An independent rural property valuation is typically needed for purchase, sale, family succession, capital gains tax events, stamp duty on related-party transfers, and lending or financial reporting. A valuer assesses land classes, water entitlements, improvements, and productive capacity — things a $/ha median blurs together. For residential property, a formal valuation is usually required by the lender, but getting your own independent assessment before committing can save you from overpaying.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the national median farmland price in Australia for 2025? ▾
Which Australian state has the most expensive farmland? ▾
Are Australian house prices going up or down in 2026? ▾
How much Australian farmland is foreign-owned? ▾
What’s the difference between a median price and what my property is worth? ▾
The Real Value Is in the Details
A national median of $10,516 per hectare or a forecast of -1.1% for house prices tells you something about the direction of the market. It doesn’t tell you whether the block you’re looking at is worth the asking price. That answer lives in the comparable sales, the holding costs, the local supply dynamics, and the specific attributes of the land itself. The markets that are cooling — Sydney, Melbourne, and potentially farmland nationally — may offer genuine opportunities for buyers who do the work. But the work is the point. Skip it, and you’re betting on a headline rather than a property.
Remember: this article is general information only. For advice on your specific situation, speak to a qualified professional.
If this was useful, you might also want to read Knockout Blocks: Essential Due Diligence for Australian Land Buyers.
Sources and Further Reading
From Vacant Block to Dream Home: Planning Your Build on Australian Land — A practical guide to the construction side once you’ve secured the right block.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness (2026). Australian Farmland Values 2026. 🔗
ABARES (March 2026). Farmland Price Indicator. 🔗
KPMG (August 2026). KPMG Residential Property Report. 🔗
Domain (June 2026). FY2027 Housing Market Forecast. 🔗
ATO (March 2026). Register of Foreign Ownership of Australian Assets. 🔗
SQM Research (2026). Vacancy Rates and Property Listings. 🔗
