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This article is general information only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. For your specific situation, consult a qualified solicitor or financial adviser.
Ten years after the UK voted to leave the European Union, the economic picture is far from simple. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the new trading relationship will reduce long-run productivity by 4% relative to staying in the bloc, with trade flows expected to be around 15% lower in the long run. But that headline figure masks a more complicated reality — some parts of the economy have adapted, and a few have even found unexpected advantages. Here’s what you actually need to know.
Those numbers tell a story of friction and cost. But they don’t tell the whole story. While the overall economy has taken a hit, certain industries have found room to grow, and the post-Brexit immigration system has reshaped the labour market in ways few predicted. The key is understanding which sectors are genuinely thriving and why — and what that means for anyone running a business or thinking about their next move. Small businesses have felt the heaviest burden, but some have also found new routes to market.
Four Key Takeaways About Brexit’s Winners and Losers
What I tend to notice when looking at these figures is that the winners aren’t necessarily the ones you’d expect. It’s not about which sector was most pro-Brexit. It’s about which sectors could adapt to a world with more friction, a different labour supply, and a weaker pound.
Why Services Exports Outperformed Goods — and What That Means
Goods exports to the EU were 18% below their 2019 level in 2024 in real terms, according to data cited by The Guardian. That’s a steep drop. But services exports have held up much better, precisely because they don’t require physical customs checks. A consulting report or a software licence doesn’t get held up at Dover.
This divergence matters because services make up about 80% of the UK economy. If you’re in finance, legal services, digital marketing, or tech, the post-Brexit environment has been less disruptive than for someone manufacturing goods. The flip side is that the industries that have struggled most — manufacturing, agriculture, food production — tend to employ more people in regions that voted Leave.
Consider a small food exporter sending cheese to France. Before Brexit, that was straightforward. Now, they face customs declarations, health certificates, and potential delays. HMRC estimates the extra cost of customs paperwork alone at £7.5 billion a year. That’s a cost that hits smaller businesses hardest, since they have less capacity to absorb it or hire compliance staff.
What I’d be weighing up if I ran a goods-based business is whether the extra paperwork and cost can be passed on to customers or whether it eats into margins. For some, the answer has been to shift more operations online or to focus on services rather than physical products. Innovation has become a survival strategy for many UK businesses, not just a nice-to-have.
Where Businesses and Investors Have Gone Wrong
Underestimating the Cost of Customs Compliance
The most common mistake I’ve seen is treating customs paperwork as a one-time setup cost. It’s not. The requirements have more than quadrupled since Brexit, and they recur with every shipment. A business that exports regularly needs a dedicated process — or a third-party customs agent — not just a spreadsheet. The £7.5 billion annual figure from HMRC isn’t a one-off; it’s a permanent new operating cost.
Assuming New Trade Deals Would Replace EU Trade
There was a lot of talk about striking deals with fast-growing economies like India and Japan. But the numbers tell a different story. The UK-Japan deal will add 0.1% to GDP over 15 years. The Australia deal, another 0.1%. Compare that to the 15% projected drop in UK-EU trade, and it’s clear these deals are not replacements. They’re supplements at best. Businesses that pivoted entirely toward non-EU markets without maintaining their EU relationships may have left money on the table.
Ignoring the Labour Market Shift
Net migration from the EU turned negative in 2022, meaning more EU citizens left than arrived. But overall net migration hit nearly 1 million in the year to June 2023, with almost 90% coming from outside the EU. That’s a massive shift. Businesses that relied on EU labour — hospitality, agriculture, construction — have had to rethink recruitment. Those that adapted quickly to hiring from India, Nigeria, or the Philippines have fared better. Those that didn’t have struggled with staffing.
Betting on a Weaker Pound as a Permanent Boost
Sterling has traded around 10% below its pre-referendum value, averaging €1.16 since 2016 versus €1.27 before. That makes UK exports cheaper, which sounds good. But it also makes imports more expensive, raising costs for businesses that rely on foreign materials or components. The net effect varies by sector. A whisky exporter benefits. A car manufacturer that imports parts gets squeezed. The mistake is assuming a weaker pound helps everyone equally.
→ Scroll right to see all columns
| Sector | Post-Brexit Impact | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Services (finance, consulting, tech) | Relatively stable | Low physical friction at borders |
| Goods manufacturing | Significant decline | Customs checks, paperwork, delays |
| Agriculture & food production | Severe disruption | Labour shortages, export barriers |
| Hospitality & tourism | Mixed | Labour pool shifted, but domestic demand held |
How to Navigate the Post-Brexit Economy — A Practical Guide
Reassess Your Supply Chain for Friction Points
The first thing I’d do is map every cross-border movement of goods in your business. Where do raw materials come from? Where do finished products go? For each route, identify the customs requirements, the paperwork, and the potential delays. The TCA didn’t eliminate checks — it just defined what they look like. If you’re importing from the EU, you need a customs agent or a digital platform that handles declarations. If you’re exporting, you need to know whether your product qualifies for zero-tariff treatment under the rules of origin. That’s not always straightforward. A product with components from multiple countries may not qualify, meaning you pay tariffs you didn’t expect.
Build a Non-EU Recruitment Pipeline
With EU net migration negative and overall net migration at record highs, the labour market has fundamentally changed. The post-Brexit immigration system is points-based and favours skilled workers. If your business needs labour, you need to understand the visa routes available. The Health and Care Worker visa, the Skilled Worker visa, and the Youth Mobility Scheme are the main options. Each has different requirements, costs, and processing times. I’d start by identifying which roles are hardest to fill and whether they meet the skill and salary thresholds for sponsorship. Building a diverse workforce isn’t just a nice idea — it’s becoming a practical necessity.
Review Your Currency Exposure
The pound’s 10% drop against the euro since 2016 is not a temporary blip. It’s a structural shift. If you buy materials priced in euros or dollars, your costs have gone up permanently. If you sell in those currencies, your revenue has gone up too. The question is which side you’re on. A business that imports and exports in roughly equal volumes may be naturally hedged. One that mostly imports needs to either raise prices, find domestic suppliers, or use currency forward contracts to lock in rates. Ignoring the exchange rate is a risk, not a strategy.
Focus on Services and Digital Offerings
If your business can shift part of its offering from physical goods to digital services, that’s worth exploring. Services exports have outperformed goods exports precisely because they face less friction. A manufacturer that also offers maintenance contracts, training, or software subscriptions can reduce its exposure to customs delays. This isn’t possible for every business, but even a partial shift can improve resilience. The UK’s strength in services is not an accident — it’s a structural advantage that Brexit has made more important, not less.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has any industry genuinely benefited from Brexit? ▾
How much has Brexit actually cost the average person? ▾
Are new trade deals with Australia and Japan making a difference? ▾
Why has net migration gone up if Brexit was supposed to reduce it? ▾
Should small businesses still bother exporting to the EU? ▾
Could the UK rejoin the EU or the single market? ▾
The Real Lesson From a Decade of Brexit
The most honest assessment I can offer is that Brexit has been a net negative for the UK economy, but the damage is unevenly distributed. Services have held up. Goods trade has suffered. Business investment is lower. Immigration is higher but from different places. The winners are not industries that campaigned for Leave — they’re industries that could adapt to friction, currency shifts, and a new labour pool. If you’re running a business, the lesson isn’t about whether Brexit was right or wrong. It’s about understanding where your specific exposure lies and whether you can adjust. The economy has changed permanently. The question is whether you’ve changed with it.
Remember: this article is general information only. For advice on your specific situation, speak to a qualified solicitor or business adviser.
If this was useful, you might also want to read Navigating Inflation: Strategies for UK Businesses to Protect Profits.
Sources and Further Reading
Is Your Business Digitally Fit? — Practical steps for adapting your operations to a more digital, less friction-heavy trading environment.
Office for Budget Responsibility (2024). Brexit: Long-term economic impacts. 🔗
The Guardian (2025). Brexit 10 years on: what does Britain think? 🔗
CNBC (2025). Brexit 10 years on: UK economy still feeling the pain. 🔗
Economics and International Relations Review (2025). The economic consequences of Brexit: a decade on. 🔗
