Nearly three-quarters of Australian consumers are ready to change how they shop right now. In a McKinsey survey of more than 1,700 consumers across 11 industries, 73 percent said they were likely to try new shopping behaviours, a 3 percent increase from the previous quarter. That shift is not random. It reflects a deeper redefinition of what value means under sustained cost-of-living pressure.
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Australian households spent $78.98 billion in January 2026 alone, up 0.3 percent month-on-month and 4.6 percent year-on-year. But underneath that headline growth, the way people decide what to buy, where to buy it, and which brands to stick with has changed in ways that catch many businesses off guard. Price sensitivity now dominates — roughly 86 percent of consumers prioritise price when purchasing, and 48.2 percent focus primarily on essential spending. Nearly 90 percent of Australians are concerned about grocery prices, and 78 percent worry about fuel costs.
What that means for any business selling to Australian consumers is straightforward: the old rules of loyalty no longer apply. Points and punch cards are not enough. The brands that understand what is actually driving behaviour — and what isn’t — are the ones that will hold onto their customers. Here’s what you actually need to know.
What the data reveals about modern loyalty
The central concept here is the loyalty ecosystem — a shift from standalone points programmes to integrated networks where rewards, partnerships, and personalised experiences work together across multiple brands and sectors. Australian consumers now prefer programmes that integrate across partners: the desire to “spend points to redeem partner-company products” jumped five percentage points since 2022, the highest change in feature importance. What I notice is that the brands treating loyalty as a simple transaction are the ones losing ground fastest.
Understanding this shift matters because the way Australians interact with brands is being reshaped by AI and by changing expectations around speed, convenience, and recognition. A programme that worked five years ago may now be actively driving customers away.
The real cost of getting loyalty wrong
When a business misreads what Australian consumers actually want, the consequences show up in measurable ways. The gap between top-quartile and bottom-quartile loyalty programmes has widened since 2022. Members of top-quartile programmes are roughly twice as likely to increase purchase frequency, and 79 percent more likely to recommend the brand. That gap is not theoretical — it is lost revenue and lost referrals that compound over time.
Look at the numbers by sector. Grocery programme influence among members reached about 60 percent, up eight percentage points since 2022. Airline programme influence hit roughly 70 percent, a 24-percentage-point increase over the same period. These are not small shifts. When a loyalty programme directly drives 70 percent of member behaviour in a category as competitive as air travel, the cost of a weak programme is enormous.
At the same time, 70 percent of retail leaders believe the current value-seeking behaviour among Australian consumers is a structural shift, not a short-term reaction to inflation. That matches what the spending data shows: around 75 percent of Australians now identify as bargain hunters, actively switching brands for better value, and two-thirds describe themselves as careful with money. If you are designing a loyalty strategy based on the assumption that customers will eventually return to old habits, that assumption is likely costing you market share right now.
Four traps that undermine loyalty programmes
Ignoring the “too long to earn” problem
Sixteen percent of nonparticipants now say “it takes too long to earn rewards” as their reason for opting out, up two percentage points since 2022. That number may sound small, but it represents a growing segment of consumers who have done the math and decided the programme is not worth their time. The fix is not just faster rewards — it is making the value of the programme clear from day one. Customers prioritise relevance, ease of understanding, and clarity around rules. Programmes that deliver immediate and clearly priced benefits perform better across every measure.
Assuming engagement is the same as satisfaction
Sixty-five percent of grocery programme members use them almost every shop, but that figure is down five percentage points since 2022. High usage does not equal high satisfaction. Members may be scanning a card out of habit while feeling increasingly indifferent. The risk here is that a business sees frequent scans and assumes the programme is healthy, when in reality customers are one competitor offer away from switching.
Overlooking the awareness gap
Nearly a quarter of customers are unaware that loyalty programmes exist for specific brands. That is a stunning number. You cannot build loyalty if people do not know the programme exists. The research suggests that awareness is not just about marketing spend — it is about integration. The most recognised programmes in Australia, such as major grocery chains, achieve more than 90 percent awareness partly because they extend into adjacent offers like financial services and travel. Standalone programmes without partner visibility struggle to reach the same level of recognition.
Sticking with points when subscription is winning
Roughly twice as many members are in traditional loyalty programmes compared to subscription models, but subscription-based loyalty leads in member satisfaction by 8 to 15 percentage points across major brands. The gap is consistent and significant. The trade-off is clear: traditional programmes offer free entry but slow rewards, while subscription models ask for upfront commitment in exchange for clearer, faster value. For many businesses, the question is not whether to offer a subscription option — it is whether they can afford not to.
→ Scroll right to see all columns
| Feature | Traditional Loyalty | Subscription Loyalty |
|---|---|---|
| Member base | Roughly 2x the size of subscription | Smaller but growing faster |
| Member satisfaction | Baseline | 8–15 percentage points higher |
| Reward clarity | Often complex, delayed | Immediate, clearly priced |
| Upfront cost to member | Free | Paid (monthly or annual) |
| Best fit | High-frequency, low-margin categories | Categories where speed and convenience matter most |
Building a loyalty strategy that matches how Australians shop today
Start with the data, not the programme design
Australian consumers move across search engines, social platforms, messaging apps, and physical stores before purchasing. The brands that understand this journey well enough to act on it are the ones that build loyalty that lasts. That means investing in the data foundations and AI decision-making logic that allow you to recognise a customer across channels and respond in real time. McKinsey’s research shows that organisations rewiring loyalty offerings around agentic commerce and AI-driven personalisation are pulling ahead. A practical starting point is using a platform like Shopify to unify customer data, automate personalised offers, and manage loyalty across online and physical channels.
Design for the whole basket, not one category
Australian consumers now trade down in some categories to splurge in others. Dining and travel are the top splurge categories, often offering emotional or experiential rewards. A loyalty programme that only rewards spending in one category misses the bigger pattern. The most effective programmes integrate across partners and sectors. The trend toward “super-ecosystems” — fewer but broader loyalty networks — reflects this. If you are a retailer, think about partnerships with complementary services that your customers already use.
Match the delivery experience to the promise
Seven in ten shoppers want added choice at checkout, and 69 percent want a range of delivery options including out-of-home collections. Twenty-six percent expect same-day or next-day delivery when something is urgent. A loyalty programme that promises convenience but fails on delivery speed creates a gap between expectation and reality that erodes trust. For businesses handling sensitive customer data or managing remote teams, using a tool like ExpressVPN for secure remote access and data protection can help maintain the operational reliability that loyalty promises depend on.
Prepare for the agentic commerce shift
Forty-four percent of Australian businesses already advocate for agentic commerce, and 85 percent are preparing for an agentic future. Fifty percent of shoppers think everyone will use AI for online shopping in the future. Agentic commerce — where AI agents make purchasing decisions or recommendations on behalf of consumers — is projected to reach $5 trillion globally by 2030. Food, fashion, and books and multimedia are the top categories for agent use. This is not a distant scenario. Loyalty programmes need to be designed so that an AI agent can understand, value, and act on them without human intervention. If your programme is confusing to a person, it will be invisible to an agent.
Frequently asked questions
Are loyalty programmes still worth it if most customers only use them occasionally? ▾
How do I know if my loyalty programme is actually driving behaviour? ▾
Should I switch from a traditional points programme to a subscription model? ▾
How important are partner integrations in a loyalty programme? ▾
What about small businesses — can they compete with major loyalty programmes? ▾
How does AI change the way loyalty programmes should work? ▾
What comes next for loyalty in Australia
The most important shift in the research is not about points or rewards — it is about structure. The traditional coalition model, where separate brands share a common points currency, is giving way to fully integrated partnerships with multiprogramme tie-ins. The Australian market is trending toward fewer but broader super-ecosystems. That means the businesses that start building those partnerships now, before the consolidation accelerates, will be in a stronger position when the landscape settles.
At the same time, the agentic commerce wave is coming faster than most businesses expect. With 85 percent of Australian businesses preparing for an agentic future and projected global revenue of $5 trillion by 2030, loyalty programmes that cannot be understood and acted upon by AI agents will simply be bypassed. The brands that succeed will be the ones that treat loyalty as a data-driven ecosystem, not a marketing programme.
Remember: this article is general information only. For advice on your specific situation, speak to a qualified professional.
If this was useful, you might also want to read Innovation Sprints: Speeding Up Product Development for the Australian Market.
Sources and Further Reading
Small Business, Big Impact: How Local Aussie Businesses Drive the Economy — Explores how local businesses build community loyalty and why that matters for the broader economy.
The Future of Work in Australia: How to Thrive in a Hybrid World — Covers the workplace trends and technology shifts that are changing how Australian businesses operate.
McKinsey & Company (2025). Australian consumer loyalty: Rapid change calls for rapid solutions. 🔗
Australia Post (2025). Inside Australian Online Shopping 2025 Ecommerce Report. 🔗
Retail Show Australia (2026). Australian Retail Spending Trends 2026. 🔗
Statista (2025). Consumers in Australia — E-Commerce & Retail. 🔗
