About 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages are scheduled to end in 2026 — the largest refinancing cohort in UK history. Most of those deals were taken out during the stamp duty holiday in 2021, when rates sat below 2%. The deals available today look nothing like that. Here’s what you actually need to know.
Disclosure: Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you make a purchase through them, Britwealth may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only include products and services that are relevant to the topic.
This article is general information only and does not constitute professional advice. For your specific situation, consult a qualified professional.
The Bank of England has held the base rate at 3.75% since November 2025, and the Mortgage Policy Committee voted to hold again in June 2026 — the fourth consecutive hold. That sounds stable, but fixed mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the base rate. They’re priced off swap rates, which reflect inflation expectations, government bond yields, and global capital flows. When Middle East tensions spiked earlier in 2026, swap rates jumped and lenders repriced fixed deals upward almost overnight. Two-year fixes hit 5.9% in April before easing back. The gap between two-year and five-year fixes is now negligible — around 5.68% and 5.63% respectively — which is unusual and worth paying attention to.
What this means in practice: the old assumption that waiting always pays off no longer holds. Borrowers coming off sub-2% pandemic deals face a jump in monthly costs, but the shape of the market has also changed in ways that create genuine options — if you know where to look. The biggest financial drain for most households right now is inertia — sitting on a standard variable rate or assuming your current lender will give you the best deal.
What the 2026 Remortgage Wave Actually Costs
The numbers behind the 1.8 million figure are stark. Most of those maturing deals were taken out in 2021 at rates below 2%. Rolling off onto a new fixed rate at current levels means a significant jump. On a £200,000 mortgage moving from 1.5% to 4.5%, the monthly payment rises by roughly £280. On a £250,000 mortgage moving from 2.0% to 5.0%, the increase is around £380 per month. Those aren’t hypotheticals — they’re the typical range for the cohort now refinancing.
Mortgage arrears have crept up — 107,700 cases where the balance is more than 2.5% in arrears, up 7.5% from the previous quarter. That’s still well below the 3.5% arrears rate seen during the 2008 financial crisis, but the direction matters. Repossessions remain low by historical standards at around 1,400 per quarter, and lenders have robust forbearance frameworks in place. The market is under stress, not in crisis, but the stress is concentrated among households who borrowed at peak prices with minimal deposits and are now facing the full force of the reset.
First-time buyers feel it too. Average mortgage payments for first-time buyers now eat up about 32% of take-home pay, and the average deposit sits between £61,000 and £89,000 — 20–25% of the purchase price depending on region. In London, that deposit figure climbs above £120,000. The gap between renting and buying has narrowed in some regions, but the deposit barrier remains the primary obstacle.
Four Things Worth Weighing Up Before You Fix
Understanding that fixed rates track swaps rather than the base rate explains a lot of what’s happened in 2026. The base rate has been held at 3.75% since November 2025, yet fixed rates rose through April and May before settling back. That’s not a glitch — it’s how the system works. Swap rates jumped on Middle East energy disruption and UK political uncertainty, and lenders repriced accordingly. The reverse can happen just as quickly if those pressures ease.
Where People Get Tripped Up
Waiting until the last month to act
The most common mistake is treating the end of a fixed-rate deal like a deadline you can meet in week 51. Most lenders allow you to secure a new rate up to six months ahead. Coreco, a mortgage broker, speaks to clients six months before their rate expires to review options and lock in early. The earlier you start, the more leverage you have — you can monitor rates, switch if a better deal appears, and avoid the scramble that pushes people onto expensive standard variable rates. If you do nothing, your lender moves you onto their SVR, which averaged around 7.13% in July 2026 — roughly 1.5 percentage points above the best fixed deals.
Assuming the base rate tells you what your mortgage costs
As noted above, fixed rates follow swap rates, not the base rate. The Bank of England could cut the base rate twice in 2026 and fixed rates could still rise if inflation expectations or bond yields move the wrong way. Several industry figures — including Richard Dana Tembo of Dana and Andrew Montlake of Coreco — have pointed out that borrowers who fix based solely on where they think the base rate is heading are making a bet on swap markets, not on the Bank of England. The stronger approach is to look at what fixed rates are actually available today and decide whether the certainty they offer is worth locking in.
Overlooking product transfers with your existing lender
Product transfers — moving to a new deal with the same lender — accounted for £256 billion in 2025, up 18% year on year. They’re popular because they often require no new affordability check or valuation. But the convenience can come at a cost. UK Finance forecasts external remortgaging (switching to a different lender) will rise around 10% to £77 billion in 2026, partly because borrowers are finding better rates elsewhere. The advice from multiple brokers is consistent: compare what your current lender offers against the whole market before deciding. A broker can do that in a single conversation.
Treating interest-only as a permanent fix
Switching to interest-only for six months is a legitimate option under the Mortgage Charter, and it can free up cash flow during a tight period. But the long-term cost is real — you’re not paying down the principal, so the total interest paid over the life of the mortgage will be higher. The Charter allows this as a one-off option without an affordability check, but reverting to repayment or extending the term back to its original length requires contacting your lender within six months. It’s a bridge, not a destination.
How to Approach Your Remortgage in This Market
The consensus among brokers and industry bodies is unusually consistent: don’t try to time the market, do start early, and do compare options across lenders. Here’s what that looks like in practice.
→ Scroll right to see all columns
| Product type | Typical rate (July 2026) | Best suited for |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year fixed | ~5.68% | Borrowers who may move or remortgage within 2–3 years; those betting rates will fall by 2028 |
| 5-year fixed | ~5.63% | Borrowers prioritising payment certainty; the rate is effectively the same as the 2-year fix, so the longer term costs no extra premium |
| Standard variable rate | ~7.13% | No one — it’s the fallback option and almost always more expensive than fixing |
| Tracker (base rate + margin) | Varies with base rate | Borrowers comfortable with variable payments who expect base rate cuts; typically no early repayment charges |
The near-identical pricing on 2-year and 5-year fixes is the standout feature of the current market. Historically, you paid a premium for fixing for five years. Right now you don’t. That makes the 5-year fix a genuinely compelling option for anyone who wants to lock in certainty and not think about their mortgage again until 2031. The trade-off is that if rates fall significantly in 2027–2028, you’d be stuck at a higher rate unless your deal allows porting or you’re willing to pay early repayment charges.
What the Mortgage Charter offers you
The Mortgage Charter, reaffirmed by lenders representing roughly 90% of the market in March 2026, gives borrowers specific options that are worth knowing about before you need them. If you’re up to date with payments, you can:
- Switch to interest-only for six months without a new affordability check
- Extend your mortgage term to reduce monthly payments, with the option to revert to the original term within six months
- Lock in a new deal up to six months before your current rate ends
- Request a better like-for-like deal with your lender right up until the new term starts
These options don’t affect your credit score. The Charter explicitly states that seeking support and engaging with your lender will not impact your credit file. That’s a significant protection — it removes the fear that asking for help will penalise you later. The caveat is that these flexibilities don’t apply to buy-to-let mortgages, and if you want to permanently extend your term beyond your expected retirement date, a full affordability check is required.
The process in three steps
- 1Check your expiry date and start earlyFind out exactly when your current fixed rate ends. Set a reminder six months before that date. Most lenders allow you to secure a new rate that far ahead, and if rates fall during the lock period, you can often switch to a cheaper deal.
- 2Speak to a whole-of-market brokerA broker can compare product transfers from your current lender against new deals from other lenders in a single conversation. The difference between the cheapest deal and the most convenient one can be hundreds of pounds a year.
- 3Decide between certainty and flexibilityWith 2-year and 5-year fixes priced almost identically, the decision comes down to your circumstances. If you might move or need to remortgage within three years, the 2-year fix keeps your options open. If you want to lock in stability and not worry about rate movements, the 5-year fix costs you nothing extra.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I fix for 2 years or 5 years right now? ▾
Can I switch to interest-only to lower my payments? ▾
What happens if I don’t remortgage before my deal ends? ▾
Will asking my lender for help affect my credit score? ▾
Are 95% mortgages still available for first-time buyers? ▾
Can I lock in a rate before my current deal ends? ▾
The Shape of Things to Come
The consensus across industry forecasts is that rates will trend lower through 2027–2028, but the pace depends on inflation and geopolitical stability. The base case from most analysts puts the base rate at 3.0–3.5% by end of 2026, with 2-year fixed rates settling around 4.0–4.5%. That’s not a return to the 1–2% world of 2021, but it’s a meaningful improvement from the 5.9% peak seen in April 2026. The bull case — base rate at 2.5–3.0% by end of 2027 — would bring 2-year fixes down to 3.5–4.0%, which would significantly improve affordability for anyone who can wait.
But waiting carries its own risk. The 1.8 million households coming off fixed deals this year can’t all afford to sit on an SVR for 12–18 months hoping for lower rates. The practical middle ground is to lock in a 2-year fix now — which gives you protection against further volatility while keeping the option to refinance at lower rates in 2028. If the 5-year fix is priced the same and you value certainty, take the longer term and stop worrying about rate movements altogether.
What’s clear from the data is that the market has structurally shifted. The era of ultra-cheap debt is not coming back in any forecast I’ve seen. But the current environment — with stable base rates, competitive lender pricing, and government-backed support schemes — is more navigable than the chaos of 2022–2023. The difference between a good outcome and a bad one comes down to timing, comparison, and the willingness to start the process early rather than react at the last minute.
If this was useful, you might also want to read Smart Tips for Choosing Rental Assets in the UK.
Remember: this article is general information only. For advice on your specific situation, speak to a qualified professional.
Sources and Further Reading
Hidden Property Insurance Clauses UK Homeowners Need to Know — If you’re remortgaging or buying, your insurer’s small print matters more than you’d think.
Financial Independence Is Closer Than You Think: A UK Guide — Managing your mortgage is one piece of the broader financial picture worth keeping in view.
UK Finance (2026). Mortgage Market Forecast 2026–2027. 🔗
HM Government (2026). Mortgage Charter 2026. 🔗
Bank of England (2026). Monetary Policy Committee announcements. 🔗
Office for National Statistics (2026). UK inflation statistics. 🔗
Moneyfacts (2026). Mortgage product statistics. 🔗
The Mortgage Mill (2026). The UK Mortgage & Property Market in 2026. 🔗
