By 2030, nearly one in four people in Canada will be over 65 — up from about one in five today. That shift, based on Statistics Canada projections, points to a big wave of homeowners expected to trade their family homes for something smaller. But the data so far shows something different. Only 16% of Canadians aged 65 and older actually plan to downsize in the next decade, according to a RE/MAX Canada survey of more than 1,500 adults. The majority — 57% — intend to stay right where they are.
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This article is general information only and does not constitute professional advice. For your specific situation, consult a qualified professional.
That gap between demographic expectation and actual behaviour matters for anyone watching the Canadian housing market. If older homeowners don’t move, younger buyers face a tighter supply of family-sized homes, and the properties that do come up for sale may not be the ones retirees want. The reasons behind the standoff are practical: a shortage of suitable housing, costs that eat into equity, and the reality that many seniors are still supporting adult children financially. Here’s what you actually need to know.
Four Key Insights About the Downsizing Gap
One term that keeps coming up in discussions about downsizing is friction costs.
What I tend to notice is that people focus on the price of the next home and forget that the move itself carries a hefty price tag. That 15% figure means a home selling for $800,000 could cost $120,000 just to leave. That’s a big number to absorb, especially when you’re trying to free up cash for retirement. For more on how housing trends are shifting across generations, you might want to read about how population growth is affecting housing demand across Canada.
The True Cost of Moving to a Smaller Home
When you think about downsizing, the first number that comes to mind is probably the sale price of your current home versus the purchase price of the next one. But the real calculation needs to start further back. The following table breaks down where the money actually goes.
→ Scroll right to see all columns
| Cost Category | Typical Percentage of Sale Price | What It Covers |
|---|---|---|
| Realtor commissions | 4% – 6% | Buyer’s and seller’s agent fees |
| Land transfer tax | 1% – 3% | Provincial/municipal tax on the purchase (varies by location) |
| Legal and administrative fees | 0.5% – 1.5% | Conveyancing, title search, registration |
| Moving and renovation costs | 1% – 5% | Movers, packing, repairs, staging, minor renovations |
The geography matters too. Condo prices in cities like Toronto and Vancouver have been falling amid an influx of new supply, which could eventually make them more attractive for retirees looking to downsize. But that only helps if your current home hasn’t lost value faster than the condo you’re eyeing. The direction of both prices matters. If your home drops 10% and the condo drops 15%, you still come out ahead — but if the gap is smaller, the friction costs can wipe out the benefit.
Where Downsizing Plans Typically Fall Apart
Underestimating the full transaction cost
The 15% friction cost figure lands hardest on people who assume the sale proceeds are almost all profit. In practice, a $600,000 home might leave you with $510,000 after fees and taxes — not $600,000. That difference changes what you can afford in the next place. If you’re moving to a $400,000 condo, you’re only freeing up $110,000, not $200,000. Planning with the wrong starting number is the most common reason downsizing plans stall.
Waiting for the perfect market timing
Many retirees are holding off because they’re unsure whether home prices will rise or fall next. The RE/MAX Canada research found that a significant number of seniors have been “cautious if now’s the right time” to move. The problem is that market timing rarely works in your favour. Meanwhile, the pool of suitable smaller homes isn’t growing — 49% of Canadians already say there’s low availability, and 8% say there’s nothing at all. Waiting can mean fewer options, not better ones.
Overlooking rental options as a bridge
The survey found that 17% of seniors 65 and older said they planned to rent rather than buy when downsizing. That’s a meaningful share, but many more don’t consider renting at all. Renting can sidestep the land transfer tax and future maintenance costs, and it gives you flexibility if your health or location needs change. The trade-off is losing the stability of fixed housing costs. For some retirees, a fractional home ownership arrangement might offer a middle ground worth exploring, but for others, the simplicity of renting beats the complexity of buying again.
Not accounting for the family support factor
Three-quarters of seniors surveyed by Bloom said supporting family members is cutting into their retirement savings. That support — whether it’s helping adult children with rent, a down payment, or daily expenses — reduces the cash available to fund a move. Some retirees end up postponing downsizing specifically because they’re helping family longer than they expected. If that support is ongoing, the downsizing math needs to include it as a monthly expense, not a one-off.
How to Approach a Downsizing Move in Today’s Market
Start with the net equity, not the sale price
Before you look at any listings, get a realistic estimate of what your home would sell for and subtract the friction costs. Use a local realtor’s comparable market analysis, not an online estimate. Then subtract 10% to 15% for fees, taxes, and moving costs. That net number is your real budget. If it’s lower than you expected, you may need to adjust your target price range for the next home or consider whether staying put with modifications makes more financial sense.
Research what’s actually available in your area
Nearly half of Canadians say suitable downsized housing is hard to find. Before you commit to moving, spend time looking at what’s on the market within a reasonable radius. Visit open houses in person. Check age-restricted buildings if that matters to you. Talk to a local agent who specialises in the type of property you’re considering. If nothing suitable exists, a move may not be realistic — and that’s a useful thing to know early. For a broader look at how policy and market forces are reshaping options, see how government policies are shaping the future of real estate in Canada.
Consider the timing of buying and selling
If you’re buying and selling in the same market, the direction of prices matters less than the gap between them. But if you’re moving to a different city or province, local market conditions diverge. Condo prices in Toronto and Vancouver have been softening, which could work in your favour if you’re buying there. But if you’re selling in a market where prices are also falling, the net benefit may be smaller than expected. The key is to compare the percentage change in both markets, not just the dollar amounts.
Explore alternatives to traditional ownership
Renting, co-living arrangements, and shared equity models are all options that can reduce the upfront cost of downsizing. The RE/MAX Canada research found that 17% of seniors aged 65 and older plan to rent rather than buy. That’s a reminder that ownership isn’t the only path. If you’re concerned about maintenance costs, property taxes, and the risk of another big transaction, renting a suitable smaller home could free up your equity for other uses. For anyone considering a legal question about lease terms, strata rules, or landlord rights, connecting with a Canadian real estate lawyer through JustAnswer can provide clarity without a full retainer.
Future-phase angle: The demographic shift is accelerating
Statistics Canada data shows that about 7.74 million Canadians — 18.9% of the population — are currently 65 or older. By 2030, that share is projected to reach nearly 25%. That’s an additional 2.5 million older Canadians in less than a decade. Even if the percentage of seniors who downsize stays the same, the absolute number of people looking for smaller homes will rise sharply. That means the shortage of suitable housing could get worse before it gets better. Builders, developers, and municipal planners are only beginning to respond to this shift. For retirees, the implication is that waiting too long could mean even fewer options at higher prices.
Frequently Asked Questions About Downsizing in Canada
What percentage of home sale proceeds typically go to fees and taxes? ▾
Is it better to rent or buy when downsizing in retirement? ▾
What if there are no suitable smaller homes in my area? ▾
How does supporting adult children affect downsizing plans? ▾
Are falling condo prices in Toronto and Vancouver a good opportunity for downsizers? ▾
What is the average age of retirement in Canada? ▾
The Gap Between Expectation and Reality Is Likely to Grow
With nearly 25% of Canada’s population expected to be over 65 by 2030, the pressure on the housing market will only increase. The current shortage of suitable downsized homes — reported by 65% of seniors — isn’t going to resolve itself quickly. Builders are only starting to shift toward age-friendly designs, and the friction costs of moving remain stubbornly high. For retirees who are weighing their options, the biggest risk may be waiting for conditions that never arrive. The data suggests that acting earlier, even with a smaller financial gain, often leaves you with more choices than waiting for the perfect moment.
Remember: this article is general information only. For advice on your specific situation, speak to a qualified professional.
If this was useful, you might also want to read Why More Canadians Are Choosing Co-Living and Shared Housing Arrangements.
Sources and Further Reading
The Future of Canadian Housing: Predictions from Top Experts — A broader look at where the housing market is heading, including demographic shifts and supply constraints.
The Truth About Buying Property in Canada as a Non-Resident — Useful context for anyone considering cross-border or investment property decisions alongside downsizing.
RE/MAX Canada (2026). “Not the right time? Retirees delay downsizing plans as housing market slumps.” 🔗
RE/MAX Canada (2026). “Why Canadian retirees are putting off downsizing in 2026.” 🔗
Statistics Canada (2026). “Retirement and post-retirement employment trends.” 🔗
Statistics Canada (2024). Population projections for seniors. 🔗
